miércoles, 25 de noviembre de 2009

Confirmado los emails son reales

Pues aqui estan los famosos emails, me parece increible que este leyendo esto...

archivo: 1056477985
“… Gracias Keith,
Acabo de leer su email después de leer las otras. Eliminamos realmente expedientes con
las correlaciones negativas (esto se menciona breifly en el artículo de GRL,), y nosotros investigamos una variedad de esquemas de carga para asegurar la robustez básica de compuesto-pero de I endose ciertamente su punto más amplio aquí. Muchos de estos expedientes tienen alguno significativo las incertidumbres o las fuentes posibles de diagonal, y ésta no es el lugar a conseguir en eso…”

archivo: 1105653626

“… el efecto grande que el forzar orbital tiene en clima tiene muy poco a hacer con su medio global valor. Por lo tanto, confundiremos a gente discutiéndolo de esta manera, e incluso citando números para él. Con el fin de IPCC, pienso que sensitvity del clima debe referir a clima
WRT de la sensibilidad. gases de efecto invernadero…”

file:1134931991

“… Aquí están algunos más comentarios que conseguí en los higos de Keith/de Tim:
la eliminación de la más vieja porción de los expedientes del diagrama es solamente aceptable SI:
- podemos justificar sobre una base obvia y objetiva - por ejemplo de que los golpes de la profundidad de la muestra van abajo perceptiblemente en CA 700AD o dondequiera que nosotros quiera tajarlo.
- No quitamos la parte de la serie que dará lugar a acusaciones del diagonal
Así, puede ser que sea mejor irse como estaba en el FOD, apenas ser seguro, o para intentar versiones múltiples…”

nombre de fichero: 1151094928

“… El segundo es que debemos fijar “un desafío de la reconstrucción del clima”. La idea sería no utilizar una simulación (el *not* de los 1000 años pasados, así que ninguna de nosotros sabe la respuesta prevista) y proporcionar un ciertos datos a partir de un “período de la calibración” y algunos “pseudo-poderes” a partir del período completo y hacer éstos públicos de modo que cualquier persona pudiera intentar hacer una reconstrucción usando sus métodos favorecidos. La serie verdadera de la temperatura del NH del modelo sería mantenida por 6 meses o tan secreta. Así sería una prueba “oculta” y después de que las tentativas hubieran sido sometidas serían evaluados contra el resultado verdadero para determinar qué métodos eran los más acertados….”

Aqui en ingles:

From: Tim Osborn
To: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk, Eduardo Zorita , Gerd Bürger
Subject: report back from PAGES/CLIVAR Wengen meeting
Date: Fri Jun 23 16:35:28 2006
Cc: Keith Briffa

Hi Simon, Philip, Eduardo & Gerd (cc Keith),

I thought you might be interested in a brief report back from the recent Wengen meeting, specifically about how SO&P-funded work on pseudo-proxies was covered and related hockey-stick issues.

**Please don't circulate this further, because it is just my personal viewpoint**

Thanks for letting me show some of your material. I skipped over some graphs I took from Philip's regression presentation at the SO&P meeting because Francis Zwiers covered forward/inverse/total least squares before me. I did show some results from Eduardo, including pseudo-proxy results from Erik-II. And I showed a figure from Gerd's "many flavours" pseudo-proxy paper.

The meeting included fairly intensive discussions about many issues, and this included some discussion of von Storch et al. (2004, 2006), Wahl et al. (2006), Mann et al. (2005), Burger and Cubasch (2005) and Burger et al. (2006). Generally the discussion was quite open, with only a few disdainful remarks made about the work of people not there -- certainly not enough to distract from useful discussions.

In general, most people accepted that the MBH method could, in some situations, result in biased reconstructions with too little low-frequency. I'm not sure how much Mike Mann accepted this, but it was reinforced by findings shown by Eugene Wahl that indicated some bias in their CSM pseudo-proxy studies, and particularly by Francis Zwiers who looked to have almost completely replicated the von Storch et al. results with respect to the MBH method (though he emphasised the preliminary nature of his work and he may not have implemented the MBH method correctly... we'll have to wait and see).

Mike showed many detailed psuedo-proxy tests of the RegEM method and these seemed quite convincing in showing little problem with that method... it does assume equal error in both instrumental and proxies, so it should show less bias than other methods that wrongly put all the error in the instrumental record (i.e., "typical" regression).

So... there was some confusion about how the MBH method can be biased but the RegEM not be biased (in pseudo-proxy tests) yet they give the same results for the real proxies.

Mike thought it might be the ECHO-G vs CSM differences, but I argued against this and was supported by Caspar Ammann and Eugene Wahl who did not think that the character of the model runs was a big factor in explaining different results.

There was limited discussion of trend/detrend and white/red noise pseudo-proxy issues. Many seemed to think that if pseudo-proxy studies showed that detrending definitely caused a problem, then this was a reason not to detrend. The alternative of finding a method that worked with detrended data was not really discussed.

The discussion was fairly constructive and for the most part friendly. Eugene Wahl in particular seemed keen to "build bridges" within the community.

I should also mention two of the workshop outcomes.

The first is that a paper is being planned based on the things discussed at the workshop and covering many issues from proxy data, forcings, model simulations and reconstructions. I hope that the authorship of this might be wider than just the participants of the workshop, but we will have to wait and see who else is asked to contribute.

The second is that we should set up a "climate reconstruction challenge". The idea would be to use a simulation (*not* of the last 1000 years, so none of us know the expected answer) and provide some data from a "calibration period" and some "pseudo-proxies" from the full period and make these public so that anyone could attempt to make a reconstruction using their favoured method(s). The true model NH temperature series would be kept secret for 6 months or so. Thus it would be a "blind" test and after attempts had been submitted they would be evaluated against the true result to assess which methods were most successful.

Caspar Ammann will probably provide the simulation, so he wouldn't take part in making any reconstructions. He would keep the details secret from all others so that any one, including MBH, you and us, could enter the challenge.

Finally, it was asked whether the model runs that have so far been used for pseudo-proxy studies (NCAR CSM, ECHO-G Erik-I, HadCM3, maybe ECHO-G Erik-II?) might be made publicly available for shared use, so results are less model dependent. This would just be the surface air temperature fields from the runs, not all the other variables. What do you think, Simon and Eduardo? If you are happy with this then they could get them from the SO&P website, so no need for data extraction on your part.

Hope you find this summary interesting. It's just my opinions. I've cc'd this to Keith in case he wants to say anything different!

Cheers

Tim

Podeis descargarlos aqui

2 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Entiendo que el ridículo de esta gente es de magnitud cósmica. Si sumamos a la presidenta de la OMS y sus alertas estamos atrapados entre delincuentes,-

Aun'el dijo...

Yo diria entre psicopatas...